Middle East politics pushes oil prices up

Fears about the supply of crude oil continue to drive prices higher as political unrest sweeps across the Middle East and North Africa.

Prices of brent crude oil was trading at US$107.08 a barrel this morning, after hitting two-and-a-half year highs yesterday. Brent crude has risen around 12.5pc so far this year.

At least three companies - Repsol, Eni and BASF's Wintershall – have halted operations in Libya as violence escalates in the Gulf kingdom.

There are also reports that oil workers in Libya are striking. Saudi Arabia has said it will pump more oil, but only when needed.

International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Nobuo Tanaka said that oil prices above $100 per barrel for the rest of the year could tip the global economy back into a repeat of the 2008 economic crisis.

Airlines have also weighed in on the issue, stating that the surges in oil prices will create very challenging conditions for them.

"Oil is a big problem because it could change completely the picture,” said Giovanni Bisignani, head of the International Air Transport Association, an organisation that represents some 230 airlines.

Libya's unrest has also affected natural gas supplies, with supplies to Italy on the Greenstream pipeline suspended.

http://www.businessandleadership.com/leadership/item/28555-middle-east-politics-pushes/

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Libya: leaders say 'to fight to death'

Although government restrictions have complicated the task of compiling a tally, Human Rights Watch said 233 had been killed since last Thursday while the International Federation for Human Rights (IFHR) put the toll at 300-400.

IFHR head Souhayr Belhassen said several eastern cities, including the second city of Benghazi and Sirte, had fallen to demonstrators after army units formerly loyal to Kadhafi had defected.

Libya's al-Jamahiriya Two television and al-Shababia radio were both forced to halt broadcasts after their offices were ransacked, witnesses said.

Although they did manage to resume broadcasts, a number of witnesses said protesters had torched other public buildings in the capital overnight, including police stations and offices of the governing People's Committees.

While his 68-year-old father has yet to address the nation since the unrest erupted last week, his son Saif al-Islam took to the airwaves on Monday to condemn the uprising as a foreign plot that would be crushed.

"Libya is at a crossroads. If we do not agree today on reforms ... rivers of blood will run through Libya," he said in a fiery but rambling speech.

"We will take up arms ... we will fight to the last bullet. We will destroy seditious elements. If everybody is armed, it is civil war, we will kill each other... Libya is not Egypt, it is not Tunisia."

But his insistence the regime would not share the fate of its two north African neighbours and crumble in the face of a popular revolt did not convince those in Tripoli.

"We can hear gunfire outside. It hasn't stopped all day," a resident of a suburb east of Tripoli said by telephone.

"When we heard the unrest was approaching, we stocked up on flour and tomatoes. It's definitely the end of the regime. This has never happened in Libya before. We are praying that it ends quickly."

Witnesses arriving at the western border into Tunisia said that police had abandoned the city of al-Zawiya which had sunk into chaos.

"Libyans are burning everything in sight and they are attacking public buildings," said one witness at the border.

AN assault on Moamer Kadhafi's 41-year rule of Libya spread to Tripoli as protesters torched police stations.

Barely a week after his neighbour Hosni Mubarak was forced from office, the Middle East's longest-ruling leader sent out a warning that he was ready for a fight to the death, despite growing signs that his grip on power was loosening.

The president of Yemen, another ruler who has chalked up more than three decades in power, also defiantly insisted he would only exit if defeated at the ballot box but faced growing calls to quit.

And a top exiled opposition figure said he planned to return to Bahrain, fuelling pressure on the ruling royal family for reform.

While there was fresh violence in several Arab cities, the most dramatic events were in Tripoli where the sound of heavy gunfire broke out in downtown areas for the first time since the uprising began in eastern Libya.

"It's hard to tell who is firing: plainclothes police, supporters or opponents of Kadhafi," said another, who added that he had seen three bodies.

A Libyan newspaper reported that the justice minister had resigned in protest at "the excessive use of force" while several ambassadors, including the envoy to the Arab League, also quit.

Portugal sent a military plane to Tripoli to evacuate its nationals and those of other EU countries while several other European governments warned against all but essential travel.

Norwegian energy giant Statoil said it had begun evacuating non-Libyan staff working in Libya while British energy group BP said it too was making preparations to evacuate some of its staff.

Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh, the region's second longest-ruling leader, also struck a note of defiance against a growing clamour for his departure.

"If they want me to quit, I will only leave through the ballot box," Saleh told reporters as protesters, including opposition MPs, gathered outside Sanaa University.

In the country's south, police shot dead a protester in Aden, where protests have raged killing 12 people and wounding dozens since February 16. And tens of thousands of Huthi rebels rallied in northern Saada to demand Saleh's ouster.

While Yemen is the poorest Arab country, wealthy states have also been caught up in the wave of unrest.

In Bahrain, where a mainly Shiite population has long chafed against being ruled by a Sunni royal family, protesters geared up for a rally they hoped would bring tens of thousands to the central Pearl Square on Tuesday.

"We will stay here for as long as it takes," said student Qassem Hassan, as he passed out fruit and water to protesters.

Hassan Mashaima, leader of Bahrain's opposition Haq movement, said he would return to Manama on Tuesday, despite the threat of terrorism charges.

The unrest has also spread to Morocco where five burned bodies were found in a bank set ablaze during protests on Sunday in the northern town of Al-Hoceima demanding limits on the powers of King Mohammed VI.

 

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Key challenges for Southern Sudan after split

JUBA, 8 February 2011 (IRIN) - The release of referendum results for Southern Sudan’s historic independence showing that 98.83 percent voted for secession means formal independence is scheduled for 9 July 2011, but key challenges still remain to be negotiated.

These issues, observers say, must now be hammered out by the two ruling parties - the north's National Congress Party (NCP) and the south's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has asked the international community "to assist all Sudanese towards greater stability and development", while US President Barack Obama welcomed the "successful and inspiring referendum” but urged north and south to work quickly on post-referendum arrangements.

The often rocky relationship between the two parties has been eased by the swift acceptance of the results by President Omar al-Bashir, but observers note that progress on negotiations has so far has been slow, with the south accusing the north of dragging its heels. Some fear the north will now seek to extract a high price from the south for its separation.

Below are some key issues that have to be negotiated between now and July:

Abyei - The contested border region was due to hold a separate referendum at the same time as the south, when its residents would decide whether to become part of the north or south. But progress on that vote remains in deadlock, with the largely northern-supported Misseriya community - who travel through the region annually to graze their cattle - demanding a right to vote. The largely southern-supported Dinka Ngok people reject that demand, and southerners say only permanent residents should be allowed to vote. The area's future is expected to be wrapped into the huge negotiations ahead, with the south demanding it be ceded directly to join the new nation.

Oil and water - A new deal must be agreed to renegotiate the current equal sharing of oil pumped in the south. The economies on both sides depend hugely on oil - forming 98 percent of the southern government budget. Oil reserves lie mainly in the south but all pipelines run north. For once, observers hope oil can provide a factor for peace, as for either to benefit, the future two states will be forced to cooperate post-secession.

In addition, negotiations will have to be agreed on the future sharing of Nile river water, an issue that neighbouring Egypt will be watching keenly, reluctant to see its share of the river cut.

Debt - Sudan's crippling debt, estimated at US$38 billion, remains a major concern. It is an emotional issue: the southerners say Khartoum spent the cash on arms during the 1983-2005 civil war. The north wants to obtain international debt forgiveness to allow fresh loans, but that would still take many years. Persuading the south to take on some of that will be hard, but the north hopes that the south could then expect to have it written off more easily.

IRIN Talks: Listen toAly Verjee of the Rift Valley Institute on post-referendum Sudan Citizenship - Concern remains for the many Sudanese living in the border areas, as well as southerners and northerners based in the 'other' side of Sudan. Hundreds of thousands of southerners remain in Khartoum, but the north has so far appeared reluctant to accept any dual nationality status. The south would reportedly like people to be able to choose.

Borders - Sudan's giant north-south border remains un-demarcated, with progress slow on fixing the boundaries. Negotiations are based on colonial era maps as the border stood at Sudan’s independence in 1956, but with the frontier crossing oil and mineral rich areas, the issue is contentious.

Common problems:

Returnees - More than 180,000 southerners have returned from the north in the past three months, adding pressure to communities already struggling to cope. Major humanitarian and development problems remain. According to Refugees International, 22,000 southerners are stranded in and around Khartoum still waiting for transportation to the south.

Conflict -The south proved the critics warning of war wrong: the voting period was peaceful. Acceptance of the result by the NCP has allayed fears of north-south conflict. However, tensions remain in the volatile south. Clashes in early February between armed factions in the south's oil rich Upper Nile state left over 50 dead, and showed the potential for violence. Southern Sudan has been accused of hosting Darfuri rebel leaders fighting Khartoum, while the north is accused of backing militias battling the southern army. Both deny the charges.

Economy - Sudan's economy is struggling, with high demands for foreign currency, rising inflation and a recent slide in the value of the Sudanese pound. Price hikes on basic goods are hitting the poorest the hardest, while Khartoum remains concerned about political unrest, following popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. The two sides must also fix their currency, and decide whether a replacement for the Sudanese pound will be introduced. Rumours in early February that the north plans to scrap the pound saw its value plummet.

Read more

Referendum vote over, now the hard work begins

Ajal Kaba, "My hope is for education and a better life after te referendum"

Referendum outcome worries Somalis in the south

Sudan's Referendum Building a southern identity - Without a common northern enemy, many fear fractures within the south. Leaders must work to bring together often disparate groups, including opposition forces and those outside the mainstream SPLM movement.

Tackling corruption - Southern Sudan will rely on international donors to rebuild a land left in ruins by years of war. But it will have to ensure it strengthens its efforts to curb corruption to avoid losing wider support.

Darfur - The war-torn western region remains a major concern with conflict continuing. Khartoum has pulled out of peace talks and returned to fighting against the only rebels they signed an agreement with, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) faction of Minni Minnawi. Some fear that the south's preparations to break away will embolden rebels to increase their demands from Khartoum.

Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile State - Key battlegrounds in the civil war, these two transitional areas are in the north, but have strong support for the south's ruling SPLM. Ongoing "popular consultations" set up as part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) are intended to allow the people to shape their future. However, unlike the south and Abyei, they do not have a referendum that could allow them to join an independent south. Many of those there who fought with the south during the civil war could be bitterly disappointed if they feel abandoned in the north.

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